Grand National

[aye ready]

well all whats your fancy for the grand national today

[boxer]

west end rocker for me

[aye ready]

west end rocker for me

had ballabriggs last year boxer when he won so i'm going to cover him again but think i'll have a go on shakalakaboomboom

[phil411]

seabass

 

and

 

west end rocker

[PATTY BHOY]

the midnight club

[Henrik]

Gonna have a bet on Treacle.

[Poppy Loft]

According to Pete

[b.massey]

Ballabriggs first

 

Killy glen second

 

Forecast

[Guest Tooshy Boy]

SUNNYHILL .BOY.

[clockman]

Ballabriggs first

Killy glen second

 

Forecast

 

HOPE SO,

[Guest stb-]

HOPE SO,

is that your rocking horse

[ALF]

IF BALLABRIGGS WINS AGAIN CARRYING 11ST 9LB HE'LL BE A SUPERSTAR BUT I CANNAE SEE IT NOT MANY HORSES HAVE WON IN THE PAST FEW YEARS CARRY THAT MUCH WEIGHT

[bobby.d]

synchronised for me..wifes picked always right..

[ALF]

Here's a wee thing i found quite interesting about the Grand National stats might help some of us pick a winner????

 

 

 

Previous winners

 

1984 Hallo Dandy 10 10-02

1985 Last Suspect 11 10-05

1986 West Tip 9 10-11

1987 Maori Venture 11 10-13

1988 Rhyme 'n' Reason 9 11-00

1989 Little Polveir 12 10-03

1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-06

1991 Seagram 11 10-06

1992 Party Politics 8 10-07

1994 Miinnehoma 11 10-08

1995 Royal Athlete 12 10-06

1996 Rough Quest 10 10-07

1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-00

1998 Earth Summit 10 10-05

1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-00

2000 Papillon 9 10-12

2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11

2002 Bindaree 8 10-04

2003 Monty's Pass 10 10-07

2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10

2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-01

2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-08

2007 Silver Birch 10 10-06

2008 Comply or Die 9 10-09

2009 Mon Mome 9 11-00

2010 Don’t Push It 10 11-05

2011 Ballabriggs 10 11-00

 

 

Weight – This is a usually reliable trend which may be coming to an end or at the least needing re-assessed.

 

It used to be as simple as taking a ruler, drawing a line at the 11st weight level and ruling out everything carrying this weight and above. Corbiere won carrying 11-4 in 1983. Since then only Hedgehunter (11-1) in 2005 and Don’t Push It (11-5) in 2010 year has carried OVER 11st. Mon Mome carried bang on 11st in 2009 and Ballabriggs also carried it in 2011. Its also worth noting however that first 4 home in 2009 all carried 11st or more and the first 2 in 2010 carried 11-5 and 11-6. Don’t Push it also carried a massive 11-10 to 3rd in 2011. Thats probably the best placing from a horse carrying that much weight in many a year.

 

There may be a couple of reasons for this trend becoming less of a factor than it seems to have been in the past and also for probably needing a bit of a re-assessment. The handicapper has also made a point in recent years of trying to bring more horses into the race with a proper chance, hence dropping of top weight and more closely weighted horses than in previous years.

 

Top weight - Previously the top rated horse used to carry 12st. Now the top weight carries 11-10, 4lb less than some of the previous maximum heaviest weights. In previous years carrying up to 2st more than some other horses in the race was just too much to ask any horse, especially over 4 ½ miles and in many cases in soft ground.

 

Bottom weight – the minimum weight always carried in the National is 10st. Even if a horse was handicapped to carry less it would always have to carry weight to bring it up to the 10st minimum weight level. Horses who were carrying more than they should have were usually out of their depth. Bobbyjo was the only winner in umpteen years carrying 10st bang on who was “out of the handicap†and even then it was only carrying about 1 or 2lb overweight. However the bottom weights in the last 5/6 years or have been in a band between 10-2 and 10-7 and averaging about 10-4/10-5.

 

This is quite significant in that the handicap and therefore weight bands are being condensed. We have gone from a range of up to 28lb (and sometimes more for out of handicap horses) to in some cases approx 16lbs. Quite a difference in range. The lightest horses aren’t quite as light, the heaviest horses aren’t quite as heavy. The extremes in weight aren’t quite as wide. This could explain the prominence of +11st horses taking 7 places and 2 wins in the last 3 runnings. The weight they are carrying over the lighter weights is in some cases only 14lbs (I think Don't Push It, despite carrying 11-5, was only 15lb above bottom weight in 2010).

 

Red Rum (11-8) is the only horse since 1950 to win with 11-8 or more so Don't Push It’s run in 2011 was pretty impressive – but it still didn’t win. Synchronised on 11-10 and Ballabriggs on 11-9 face a massive task this year.

 

 

 

Breeding – this is/was my favourite stat – no French bred horse had won the National since 1909, 100 years, before Mon Mome came along and broke that run in 2009. Previously it seemed their breeding gave them a physical disadvantage in the National. There isn’t really many long distance slogs in French racing therefore the horses running in French racing, and therefore breeding as well, don’t need to have the stamina to cover extreme distances. However maybe this trend is now coming to an end as the French bred horses have been getting closer in recent years. As well as Mon Mome winning there have now been 3 2nd placed French breds and 3 3rd placed French breds since 2000 including My Will finishing 3rd in 2009. However 2011 saw Backstage the best placed of the 8 French breds, back in 10th place. 5 didn’t complete and the other 2 were last and second last, almost whole counties behind the other finishers.

 

 

 

Fitness – EVERY winner since 1988 had had a run between 16 and 49 days before the race. Quite a simple one, if your horse has been off the track for longer than 49 days then its probably not fit/sharp enough to come back to racing and win over 4 ½ mile.

 

 

 

Distance – All horses since 1988, bar one, have won a CHASE of at least 3m 1f. The only winner who hadn’t won at 3m 1f or more was Montys Pass who won a Class A Hurdles handicap at 3m. Basically your selection has to have the stamina to be winning at 3m 1f or thereabouts to then go on and win a 4 ½ m. The thought that “speed†horses who win at around 2m 4f could possibly cruise along with the leaders and then unleash a finishing burst to burn them off once over the last is now dead and buried back in the years when the plodders won a National. It’s unlikely that horses who haven’t won over 3m before will now win over 4 ½ miles in a race like the National. Extending this trend just a little futher, Gay Trip in 1970 was the last winner which hadn't won a CHASE of AT LEAST 3m.

 

 

 

Age – No 7 year old has won since 1940. No 13 year old has won since 1923. Only 3 12 year olds have won since 1981. Look for horses in the 8-11 year old age range as a minimum. 13 of the last 16 winners have been either 9 or 10 year old.

 

 

 

Class – Every winner, bar Party Politics, since 1991 has won a race worth at least £19,000. Party Politics was 2nd twice in races worth £37,000 and £23,000. This suggests that the winner has to have at least won something of note in its career prior to entering the National.

 

 

Experience – Novice winners are unusual. Bindaree and Numbersixvalverde are the only 2 winners since 1990 that didn’t have at least 3 years experience of chasing.

 

 

 

Past winners – No horse has won the National a 2nd time since Red Rum in the 1970’s. Hedgehunter put up a phenomenal performance to come 2nd in 2006 after winning in 2005. The main reason this stat has stood for so long has probably been the weight factor. Previous winners are usually given a lot more to do next time around in terms of weight. However with the weight trend possibly moving to a range as mentioned above then it gives previous winners more of a chance than in the past 30 odd years but the weight Ballabriggs has this year is a huge burden IMO.

 

 

 

Past National Experience – a new trend which is developing. 7 of the last 11 winners have previously run in the National although Don't Push It and Ballabriggs bucked this the last 2 years. While the winners returning haven’t been able to win again, having a go at the race and the horse gaining experience of big fields, strong pace, National fences, seems to be becoming a bit of a good thing. It also doesn’t seem to be a negative if the horse fell in its previous attempt (3 did), 3 have also been placed previously and Mon Mome finished 10th in 2008 before winning in 2009. The only 4 winners in the last 11 runnings without National experience were Comply or Die (won Eider Chase), Numbersixvalverde (won Irish National), Don't Push It (won John Smith Chase over course at Aintree year before) and Ballabriggs so while there isn’t really any other race quite like the National most of themthey have won either National like races in that they were over longer distances or round the course. Ballabriggs again bucked that trend a little with the most “comparable†race, although its not really much like it, being the Kim Muir at Cheltenham over 3m 1f

 

 

 

In summary, weight factor may well be changing from what it was previously but top weights still struggle, French breeding not such a big negative as it was but still think Mon Mome, at 100/1 merely a blip. Look for a horse between 8-11 year old (ideally 9-10 year old), having won over at least 3m and also won a race of decent value. Also its important that the horse has had a recent run, isn’t a Novice and it helps if it has had a go at the National, National like race or over these fences in the past.

[WHITTY]

HAD A BET ON ON HIS OWN :animatedpigeons:

[bombersbullets]

sea bass, black apalachi junior, according to pete, on his own ,organisedconfusion, thats what my crew are on

[VAGIN]

SLICE OF BREAD( A BIG OUTSIDER LOL)

[ALF]

I BET KILLYGLEN,SUNNYHILLBOY AND JUNIOR ALL E/W AND I HAVE ORGANISED CONFUSION IN THE SWEEP IN THE WORK

[harky]

The wean had 1 pound e/w on the winner, no 4 her age.

[Poppy Loft]

SUNNYHILL .BOY.

 

Hell mate unlucky, bet you were counting the money! Any sign of that last bird?

[Guest Tooshy Boy]

NO MATE .DONE NO BAD OUT IT. STILL TWO DOWN MATE .//

[john cumming]

quality, my grandson who is the whole of 3 years old pointed to neptune collonges this morning in the paper so i stuck a £5 each way on for him and me, bingo give us the money n to top it off i pick the winner in the sweep stake £50 notes, just need the lotto the nite n im sorted haha

 

 

 

 

john

 

 

 

:animatedpigeons:

[bigbill]

had 10 pounds on the winner,

[Guest Tooshy Boy]

WELLDONE LADS

[billt]

Another two horses killed, having horses most of my life I'm not a fan of the national, It's outdated and barbaric, time to call it a day