AVIAN FLU

[jimmy white]

ive e mailed purdue  university, with most of the questions were all asking, ive had a return, e mail, saying,,,,,qoute.,,,   my questions on avian flu have been forwarded to the researchers, to see if they can answer part, or all of your questions,, purdue        university. ,,   so i wonder if, or when i will get any answers,   well see, jimmy.

[jimmy white]

i have had an answer to my few questions, direct from dr mittal    ,, purdue university    q. in your view would or could this virus reach the u,k,     dr mittal,  the probability of spreading this virus to any country including the u.k. is very high.

 

 dr mittal has kindly asked me to ask any questions that pigeon fanciers in the u,k, might want to ask, so if you give me your questions ,i shall forward them all together, and lets see what we can make of it all    jimmy white

 

i have a few other answers to my questions ,but having my printer reset and repaired very soon but it would be very interesting to have a list of questions we could ask, and a list of answers to these questions, all on the one page   so ask away   and well see what happens    jimmy

[Guest]

You may have noticed an increase in the number of visits yesterday. This may be due to the BHW Editor responding to a personal letter of mine last week (on the non-appearance of vital Avian flu information & facts in the letter's page, especially Gordon Chalmers' re-appraisal of the dangers Avian flu presented to pigeon fanciers) and the publishing of a redraft of that joint letter in BHW 23rd September, which also gives this website address.

 

Also of note today's 'The Herald' carries a cautionary piece on page 18 'Warning against the overuse of bird flu drug' following publication of two papers in 'The Lancet' that resistance to anti-flu drugs had risen by 12% worldwide in the last decade. It now exceeded 70% in some of the Asian countries, suggesting amantadine and rimantadine will no longer be effective treatments or preventatives for a flu pandemic.

 

Amantadine had helped control H5N1 in the Hong Kong outbreak in 1997 but by 2003 it was no longer as effective, due to overuse / misuse / abuse of the drug. Therefore if the same happened to Tamiflu, the WHO's recommended principal 'weapon' against H5N1 which kills 1 in 2 of every human it infects, there would be nothing left to combat it. (Some experts believe the anti-viral drug zanamivir could be effective).

 

Indonesia announced another H5N1 human infection (22nd September), an 8 year old boy, bringing the totals (in Jakarta) to 4 dead and 11 under observation. A further 2 children have died, but results are still awaited to confirm H5N1 as the cause.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

DUTCH TO REMOVE BAN ON KEEPING FREE RANGE POULTRY OUTDOORS

 

Today, BBC TV carried news that UK hospitals don't have the resources to treat patients in the event of a flu pandemic here.

 

Uncovered further news from BBC News Website that Dutch plan to remove their ban imposed last month, not because they believe the risk has diminished, but because of the loss of free range organic premiums after 6 weeks confinement. European Union has also refused to impose the same ban Europe-wide because the risk from the virus spreading 'isn't high enough'.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4267112.stm

 

[Guest]

BBC WEBSITE - HEALTH

 

Interesting article on Avian Flu. Even more interesting is the 'top' group most at risk from catching the disease.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/health/conditions/birdflu1.shtml

[jimmy white]

i see in the cage and aviery,,,,,many species have been reported with infection, including,canaries, budgies, mynahs, parrots, touracos, poultry and sea birds

 ducks and geese may commonly carry the virus without showing clinical signs

[Guest]

LETTER DATED 22/9/05 FROM SCOTTISH HOMING UNION

 

Thank you for your letters and enclosures on Avian Influenza which I have read with interest. The Scottish Homing Union Office has been in touch with the relevant department of the Scottish Executive and this matter will be raised at the October Statutory meeting.

 

Yours sincerely,

John Barlow

SHU President  

[Guest]

TEST CULL OF 10,000 POULTRY, NORTHERN IRELAND, IN 'PREPARATION' FOR AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK (WHICH IS THOUGHT TO BE 'VERY REMOTE') WITNESSED BY IRISH AND BRITISH DEPARTMENTS.

 

 

Full story:

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/4269310.stm

 

 

[Guest slugmonkey]

Not sure what will happen here and havent even heard any talk of it at club when we do have restrictions they are usally very short lived and dont affect us much I hope this is the case again we usally can change directions and alleviate problem we also dont seem to have as tightly packed population centers as some other places in the world I guess people are like pigeons with overfed and undercrowed being the rule of thumb LOL !!!!!!

[Guest]

Well Bruno, you certainly know how to put the the pigeon game on the high moral ground as you call it,i think its just scare mongering by someone who has allowed this problem or so called problem to manifest its self in your mind.15 -20 years ago the aids virus was the threat and it was reconded that it would devastate society as we knew it by that i mean everybody would be aware of someone close to them having this virus,is it still a threat?do you know someone with it?is it a daily topic ? no. this posting can only draw attention to racing pigeons by fact that you are always getting more research posted on this site,and that can only be bad for the racing side of our sport,do you wish to stop the racing?how many have died(112) not a high figure and certainly not the millions as previously mention in a posting.Ithink we should just wait and see what the future brings and not prempt this situation,i only hope no damage has been done to the pigeon fanciers by these rantings.by the way the dutch authority has allowed poultry freedom and they no longer require to be isolated.are they really worried?.

[rambo]

Bruno, did you not read all the srticle from N Ireland news,it says that the chickens were to be culled anyway as they were at the end of their productive life, and was no suspicion of avian flu.

[Guest]

Reply to Lindsay’s post:

 

i think its just scare mongering by someone who has allowed this problem or so called problem to manifest its self in your mind.

 

Responding to the avian influenza pandemic threat: recommended strategic actions

 

Purpose

[justify]This document sets out activities that can be undertaken by individual countries, the international community, and WHO to prepare the world for the next influenza pandemic and mitigate its impact once international spread has begun. Recommended activities are specific to the threat posed by the continuing spread of the H5N1 virus.[/justify]

[justify]Addressed to policy-makers, the document also describes issues that can guide policy choices in a situation characterised by both urgency and uncertainty. Recommendations are phase-wise in their approach, with levels of alert, and corresponding activities, changing according to epidemiological indicators of increased threat.[/justify]

[justify]In view of the immediacy of the threat, WHO recommends that all countries undertake urgent action to prepare for a pandemic. Advice on doing so is contained in the recently revised WHO global influenza preparedness plan 1 and a new WHO checklist for influenza pandemic preparedness planning.2 To further assist in preparedness planning, WHO is developing a model country plan that will give many developing countries a head start in assessing their status of preparedness and identifying priority needs.[/justify]

 

Support for rehearsing these plans during simulation exercises will also be provided.

 

Full report available from the World Health Organisation’s Chief Scaremongerers at :

 

http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_05_8-EN.pdf

 

 

15 -20 years ago the aids virus was the threat and it was reconded that it would devastate society as we knew it by that i mean everybody would be aware of someone close to them having this virus, is it still a threat? do you know someone with it? is it a daily topic ?  no.

 

HIV and AIDS around the World

40 million people living with HIV worldwide (2.2 m children)

5 million people newly infected with HIV in 2004

700,000 people currently receive anti-HIV drugs in developing countries

90% of people living with HIV are in developing countries

HIV is increasing fastest in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Only 12% of people needing anti-HIV drugs in developing countries receive them

Anti-HIV drugs cost on average US$300 per person per year

3 million people died of AIDS in 2003

Over 20 million total AIDS deaths to date

 

World Aids Day 1st December 2005. Information  available at:

 

http://www.worldaidsday.org/about_global.asp

 

 

this posting can only draw attention to racing pigeons by fact that you are always getting more research posted on this site,and that can only be bad for the racing side of our sport, do you wish to stop the racing?

 

“It's a belt and braces, cover every angle 'strategy' Jimmy:

I think a loft full of pigeons is an easier place to start a killing spree than a park full of wild birds. And while I hope that this extreme action won't figure in the governments' plans, I want us all to be ready and prepared for such an action - even though we hope it never happens.”

 

THE DEFRA CONTINGENCY PLAN

If AI were ever confirmed in any species of captive birds (other than in commercial species), or in RACING PIGEONS, then slaughter, premises and area movement controls could be put into place if a veterinary risk assessment concluded that there was a risk of disease spreading to commercial poultry.

 

All who have had, or are likely to have contact with infected birds will need to be provided with information as to how to protect themselves and their families from infection.

 

guidance to those at risk of infection on the personal hygiene measures to be taken to protect their health and to prevent the spread of infection.

 

Anyone coming into contact with poultry or their manure/litter runs the risk of spreading animal diseases. Biosecurity is the prevention of disease causing agents entering or leaving a livestock premises. It involves a number of measures and protocols designed to prevent potential disease causing agents being spread from one premises to another.

 

 

Well Bruno, you certainly know how to put the the pigeon game on the high moral ground

 

how many have died(112) not a high figure and certainly not the millions as previously mention in a posting.

 

 

Well Lindsay, YOU certainly know how to put the pigeon game in the worst possible light. How selfish can anyone be? OK I suppose if one of the dead isn’t you or someone close.

 

 

I think we should just wait and see what the future brings and not prempt this situation,

 

THE DEFRA CONTINGENCY PLAN

There is a responsibility on all involved with the keeping of (birds) to anticipate problems and to take steps to mitigate the effects.

 

 

i only hope no damage has been done to the pigeon fanciers by these rantings.

 

"31/8.

I will email him again this morning apologising for that mistake and advise him that he could be hearing from the SHU legal team for advice. I thank you again for that lead - a legal team having 'learned counsel' with previous experience in taking on government on pigeons sounds very much like a winning combination to me."

 

 

by the way the dutch authority has allowed poultry freedom and they no longer require to be isolated.are they really worried?.

 

By the way, ALREADY posted that on 23/9:

 

DUTCH TO REMOVE BAN ON KEEPING FREE RANGE POULTRY OUTDOORS

 

Today, BBC TV carried news that UK hospitals don't have the resources to treat patients in the event of a flu pandemic here.

 

Uncovered further news from BBC News Website that Dutch plan to remove their ban imposed last month, not because they believe the risk has diminished, but because of the loss of free range organic premiums after 6 weeks confinement. European Union has also refused to impose the same ban Europe-wide because the risk from the virus spreading 'isn't high enough'.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4267112.stm

 

 

[Guest]

Reply to Rambo:

 

Bruno, did you not read all the srticle from N Ireland news,it says that the chickens were to be culled anyway as they were at the end of their productive life, and was no suspicion of avian flu.

 

Rambo, did you not read all the post, especially my intro?

 

“27/9

TEST CULL OF 10,000 POULTRY, NORTHERN IRELAND, IN 'PREPARATION' FOR AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK (WHICH IS THOUGHT TO BE 'VERY REMOTE') WITNESSED BY IRISH AND BRITISH DEPARTMENTS.”

 

Full story:

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/4269310.stm

 

 

And didn’t it dawn on you as strange that Northern Ireland, a country in which Avian Influenza is thought to be very remote, and which gets very little media attention over here unless its bombings and shootings, gasses 10,000 birds to TEST (OUR) CAPABILITY TO CULL POULTRY ON A MASSIVE SCALE? And the test was witnessed by Irish and British government officials?

If Avian flu is such a low threat why test in such numbers, why now and why not on the British mainland?  

 

[Guest]

Bruno,you are a very nice person and you are entitled to your views,but what would happen if people close to me read this and start thinking its avian flu their children have contracted instead of a head cold?,if a neibour suddenly finds they have a way of harrassing not just me but the other fanciers who have their lofts in the gardens of  local housing estates,using this as a doom and gloom outlook on pigeon lofts and what is the normal reaction of human beings,would they act rationally or would you wake up to find the loft torched by the people who would read this on this web site or worse yet in the pages of the national papers which i believe you have tried to get published it would start something you have not even stopped to consider.for your info a cull has already taken place in various parts of scotland and england by the goverment to establish if the flocks(chickens,ducks and geese) are carrying the virus,non was found,the migrating flocks of wild birds are at the moment being checked out and that finding will be made public in early spring.this goverment is very pro-active and i feel every thing is being done that can be.so please try and not feel i am picking on you far from it,you just have to be carful what you start as you may not get the end result you hope for,turning joe public against pigeons seems the only outcome.

[Guest]

Bruno,pick up the phone and ask people, some of your other views are wrong and if its not in the herald or the net then you assume nothing is being done here(in britain),phone defra and the homing union

[Guest]

Thanks, Lindsay, for coming to the table, sitting down and airing your views and fears in a very reasonable way.  

 

You will notice that quite a few posts went up way back at the beginning, all very worried people, all asking questions, before I came into the picture.

 

The only things I personally want out of this are that people in the firing line are kept properly informed. That they can speak to each other, to friends and neighbours without incurring hysteria and backbiting, reassured in the knowledge that when push comes to shove they know EXACTLY what to watch out for, and what steps to take to keep their birds, themselves, their families and their friends safe.  

 

You are 100% correct about 'its bird flu' instead of ordinary colds. That was the subject of a recent post on South East Asia, where I mentioned resistance to the virus had increased because folk were 'pill popping' for bird flu when in fact it wasn't what they had at all.

 

The only things that I know to combat ignorance are knowledge, openess and a willingness to lead by example. Anyone who keeps birds or works with them needs to both know the dangers and 'demonstrate to the world' that they are / going to behave responsibly and selflessly.

 

And the people in government need to recognise that 'people with birds' are the biggest single group at risk, and take reasonable and sensible precautions commensurate with an out-of-control virus on the loose, especially when no-one yet has a clue on how it spreads from country to country.  If that means locking up all domestic birds, pigeons and poultry, to keep folks safe, I'm for it.

 

But if they don't have the balls do that, and I have done, and they then come along and try to kill my birds, well I'll stop being a very nice person, and start being their worst nightmare.

 

 

 

 

[stevie jack]

well ive read enough  boot wash / paper hats / biosecurity / lochness monster .

birds locked up in readyness for avian flu outbrake . more posts than the homing world in january

 

my birds are locked up due to the hawk problem moult etc

living close to the callender estate [woods] your self mr brown on the east side

my self on the north side both living no more than 300 yards from the tree line .

hawks are the problem . for my lock up

 

there never been a better time for the public to object to the piegon fancy

all the buillets needed are on this fourm .

 

bush/blair  iraq / afganastain  chemical weapons ????? never happened

[Guest]

Well Stephen, your birds are locked up, and I presume have been for a while, for your own personal reasons. Mine since 27th August, since the Dutch move, because I'm taking no chances. But many others have their birds locked up at this time of year - moult, shorter days, hawks, holidays etc. No big deal then locking them up is it? Or is it?

 

An outbreak of Avian Flu takes place amongst the coots, moorhens, geese, ducks, swans and gulls on Callender Park pond tomorrow...300 YARDS AWAY FROM US. Spreads to the wood pigeons, then the crows that eat the carcases. Outbreak spreads to poultry and pigs on the nearby farms.

 

Men from the Ministry arrive at our doors on Monday to cull all our birds (and everyone with aviaries housing canaries, budgies etc within a 10 mile radius of the park).

 

Our birds have been on lock up for weeks, have never been in contact with wild birds, we haven't been near the Park, the farms, walking the dog, whatever. Our birds are healthy and showing no signs of any problem, far less Avian Flu.

 

What do we do?

 

AND THATS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO. Now lets look at the second worst case:

 

Lets assume our birds haven't been locked up. That the gulls and crows have been over our gardens foraging for scraps and crap all over the place. We walk on it. The birds walk on it, get it on their feet and feathers. We pick up the virus either when we pick up one of the birds or take our shoes off. We don't wash our hands afterwards. (and thats how simple biosecurity is...washing your hands...and a boot wash stops you walking virus / sh** everywhere). We contaminate our own birds, contaminate eveything we touch. We incubate the virus and carry it around the town spreading it amongst friends and family,  possibly starting a local epidemic.

 

Which of the two cases do you suppose would kill the fancy stone dead?

 

Your right about the bullets, Stephen. Unfortunately they come from posts such as your own.

[Guest]

Bruno,please take a moment and a deep breath,as i have already said if a problem as you describe does occur a cull of the pigeons is what will take place wether you take precautions or not is your worst fear,at the moment my worse fear is the way you are putting it over and the people around a pigeon fancier starts to object strongly on the health problem that we are facing according to you,what if nothing happens,what if we never ever get a case of this virus and some innocent fancier has become the center of attention from what used to be good neighbours,tempers get high and they take it upon themselves to hand out their judgement of this situation,how would you feel about the fancier concerned having been put through hell both physically and mentally.sit back and let what will happen,happen.I take it the hawks in the park would escape the cull or do they not carry the virus?do they migrate?would they not mix with other birds migrating and they themselves be the source of an outbreak,they do have feathers and eat other species to survive,your opinion could cause trouble for all of us and for what,waiting on some virus that may never appear.

[Guest]

 

I watched a special show on CNN tonight highlighting Avian influenza and what the American Government are planning to do if it hits America.

 

They are really standing on their toes now after their abysmal showing during the 2 recent Hurricanes.

 

Talk about putting the fear of God up people, I can see panic setting in now, the American Folks are paranoid about "germs" there is even a television advert showing some silly woman opening a door with her foot rather than let her kids touch it and catch some germ, I fear some flyers in the Urban Areas may encounter problems with their neighbours now after this ill advised show.

[Guest]

Lindsay, with respect, calm down and get yourself properly informed.  

 

It is just the 'do nothing and it'll go away attitude' that will create the very neighbour against neighbour thing that you fear. The beloved Government that you so glowingly support will, hopefully, get off its ass and leaflet people to give them the basic facts on this disease. Hopefully there are many others not so willing to 'just let them go ahead' and slaughter their birds.

 

It's primarily a disease of people. I haven't spoken to my neighbours about this because they are not yet in possession of those basic facts.   I've spoken to only one club member about it - at the time Gordon Chalmers' letter was published in the BHW -but I have attempted to have everyone in the North West Fed given the basic facts - the Committee have a copy of the article on the Home Page and a 6 page extract of the DEFRA Contingency plan, with a request they letter all members, with or without a recommendation to lock the birds up. I also asked that they advise neighbouring Feds.

 

As regards phoning the SHU - again get yourself informed, I phoned them, copied the Gordon Chalmers 'better safe than sorry correspondance' to them along with the same stuff that I gave the Fed. SHU THEN contacted the Scottish Executive, and that's how the item got on the October Council meeting agenda..somebody got off their ass and raised the matter with them.

 

Now as far as the Herald and the Scotsman goes, that was an attempt to highlight to Joe Public that free range poultry and their workers were extremely at risk - 'low patho' avian flu can go 'in one end of a chicken' and 'come out the other end' as H5N1. So while this thing is out of control, and especially during our winter period when we've enough to contend with with our own bloody flu, these birds - all domestic birds, should be locked up - plain old-fashioned Scot's common sense. And that view is also before the Scottish and Westminster Parliaments via my MSP and my MP.

 

And again, for your information. THERE IS TO BE NO CULL OF WILD BIRDS. So Mr & Mrs Hawk will also get the virus. And what's left will starve to death, hopefully with more than a little help from ourselves. So Stephen looking at Hawks in the Park, troublesome as they are, couldn't see the wood from the trees either -  the real danger there comes from the water fowl on the pond and the foraging gulls. Add to that the thousands of migratatory geese that winter near here, and the largest sea bird colony in Europe that live just spitting distance away (Scotland's shores).

 

All in all, a classic case, in my opinion, of people like yourself unable to see the wood for the trees. Bit difficult really, when your heads appear to be so deep in the sand.  

 

[jimmy white]

in my opinion this is a very scary subject,you only need to look at the internet, under bird flu to see how scary this is, i e mailed dr mittal of purdoe unniversity, he said that the propability of this virus comming to the uk was very strong , and the problem is that it mutates as it travells, at that time he asked me to forward any questions that we might want to know, so that i could privately e mail him, and then i could in turn p.m. the forum member, there were no questions asked by forum members.so i emailed him back, thanked him for his offer of help, and the advice he gave me ,so i now look at the internet and try and keep up do date with it., along with these posts,

[bill_bennie]

If you think it's scary now,,,,,, read below.

 

Deadly 1918 Epidemic Linked to Bird Flu, Scientists Say

 

 

By GINA KOLATA

Published: October 5, 2005

Two teams of federal and university scientists announced today that they had resurrected the 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, and had found that unlike the viruses that caused more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the 1918 virus was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

The work, being published in the journals Nature and Science, involved getting the complete genetic sequence of the 1918 virus, using techniques of molecular biology to synthesize it, and then using it to infect mice and human lung cells in a specially equipped, secure lab at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

 

The findings, the scientists say, reveal a small number of genetic changes that may explain why the virus was so lethal. The work also confirms the legitimacy of worries about the bird flu viruses that are now emerging in Asia.

The new studies find that today's bird flu viruses share some of the crucial genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25 to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the virus into a killer. The bird flus, known as H5N1 viruses, have a few, but not all of those changes.

In a joint statement, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said, "The new studies could have an immediate impact by helping scientist focus on detecting changes in the evolving H5N1 virus that might make widespread transmission among humans more likely."

The work also reveals that the 1918 virus is very different from ordinary human flu viruses. It infects cells deep in the lungs of mice, and infects lung cells, like the cells lining air sacs, that normally would be impervious to flu. And while other human flu viruses do not kill mice, this one, like today's bird flus, does.

But Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, chief of molecular pathology department at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, notes that the bird flus have not yet spread from human to human. He hopes the 1918 virus will reveal what genetic changes can allow that to happen, helping scientists prevent a new pandemic before it starts.

Scientists said the new work was immensely important, leading the way to identifying dangerous viruses before it is too late and to finding ways to disable them.

"This is huge, huge, huge," said John Oxford, a professor of virology at St. Bartholmew's and the Royal London Hospital, who was not part of the research team. "It's a huge breakthrough to be able to put a searchlight on a virus that killed 50 million people. I can't think of anything bigger that's happened in virology for many years."

The 1918 flu showed how terrible that disease could be. It had been "like a dark angel hovering over us," Dr. Oxford said. The virus spread and killed with terrifying speed, preferentially striking the young and the healthy. Alfred C. Crosby, author of "America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918," wrote that it "killed more humans than any other disease in a similar duration in the history of the world."

But the research, and its publication, also raised concerns about whether scientists should publish the genetic sequence of the 1918 virus. And should they actually resurrect a killer that vanished from the earth nearly a century ago?

"It is something we take seriously," said Dr. Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which helped pay for the work. The work was extensively reviewed, he added, and the National Scientific Advisory Board for Biosecurity was asked to decide whether the results should be made public. The board "voted unanimously that the benefits outweighed the risk that it would be used in a nefarious manner," Dr. Fauci said.

Others are not sanguine.

Richard H. Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, said he had concerns about the reconstruction of the virus and about publication of procedures to reconstruct the virus. "There is a risk verging on inevitability, of accidental release of the virus; there is also a risk of deliberate release of the virus," he said, adding that the 1918 flu virus "is perhaps the most effective bioweapons agent ever known."

[jimmy white]

think were all scared to post on this ,, it wont go away, by that

[Guest]

In my original letter to the BHW 'challenging' Gordon Chalmers' stance on Avian Flu and pigeons, I stuck in a few words on 1918/20 flu pandemic for perspective. Deliberately withheld the numbers, simply stated 'killed more people than the hostilities did'. You can warn people without scaring the living daylights out of them.

 

Please bear in mind that the world was 'recovering' from 4/5 years of war, peoples' immune systems were 'shot to ribbons' due to the deprivations war brings and millions of people were criss-crossing the globe 'going home' and in doing so they carried and spread the virus to every continent and every part of the world.  

 

Today's circumstances are a lot different from then. There's still people movement, but not on that scale. Please do not be alarmed....be informed.

 

The one thing in the article which strikes me Bill, is the 'two waves' bit : the disease hit in two waves. Kind of overlooked that when considering what I believe to be the current 'highest risk' threat - the World's Autumn bird migration. What goes upcountry in Autumn must come back downcountry for Spring breeding. I personally have only considered the 'incoming' birds that winter here.  

 

Anybody any knowledge of what birds leave the UK in Autumn to winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and return here in the Spring? Will our 'own' wild birds pose the same threat come Spring?