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AVIAN FLU


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Tests carried out on dead birds  

 

A number of birds have died and tests are being carried out

Tests are being carried out on a number of birds which have died at an Orkney poultry unit.

Samples have been flown to England for analysis because of the possibility that the birds may have been suffering from bird flu.

 

A spokesman for the Scottish Executive said "suspect" cases are investigated "as a matter of routine".

 

There have already been 39 similar UK investigations carried out this year, all of which returned negative results.

 

A spokeswoman for the Scottish Executive said: "We can confirm a number of birds died on a poultry premises on mainland Orkney.

 

  If the virus does gain access to a domestic poultry unit, I would certainly like to think it would be dealt with quickly and that there would be no secondary outbreaks

 

Dr Bob McCracken

British Veterinary Association

 

"A vet officer visited the premises yesterday and took samples for laboratory investigation of suspected avian notifiable disease, which could be a strain of Avian Influenza or Newcastle Disease.

 

"Suspect cases are investigated as a matter of routine and 39 similar investigations have been carried out in Great Britain to date."

 

The farm has been sealed off and samples have been taken to the Laboratory for Avian Influenza in Weybridge.

 

Dr Bob McCracken, immediate past president of the British Veterinary Association, told BBC Scotland's news website that although the birds could have died from a number of causes, bird flu was still a risk.

 

Dr McCracken, a poultry pathologist for 30 years, pointed out Orkney's proximity to Scandinavia where the virus has been found.

 

Deadly strain

 

"Scandinavia is quite close," he said. "But if the birds are indoors it's unlikely the virus will get to them."

 

He said that if the poultry were found to have died from bird flu, it was likely to be the potentially deadly H5N1 strain.

 

"But even if the virus does gain access to a domestic poultry unit, I would certainly like to think it would be reported quickly and dealt with quickly and that there would be no secondary outbreaks," he added.

 

Dr McCracken emphasised that the birds could have died from a number of causes.

 

  This latest investigation highlights the need for continued vigilance

 

James Withers

National Farmers Union

 

However, he said he was reassured that farmers were reporting poultry deaths.

 

"This is precisely what is needed as we face the challenges posed by this virus" he said.

 

James Withers, of the National Farmers Union of Scotland, said "No-one is getting ahead of themselves and there is no point in speculating about the likely results.

 

"There are always a number of possible causes of bird deaths, aside from bird flu.

 

 

 

 

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BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL JUST HOPING IT'S GOING TO GO AWAY, BUT THEY DO NOT REALIES THE DAMAGE WHICH IS BEING DONE TO PIGEONS, EVEN NOW I THINK IT'S GOING TO TAKE A LONG TIME IF EVER TO GET PIGEONS RECOGNISED AS BEING GOOD, PUT URESELF IN A NON FANCIERS PLACE AND READING THAT PAPER TODAY, AND U HAVE PIGEONS FLYING AROUND UE HOUSE DAY IN AND DAY OUT, AND REMEMBER WHEN MOST FANCIERS LET BIRDS OUT NOWADAYS ITS BIG BATCHES, IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY NOW FOR COUNCILS OR MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC WHO DO NOT WANT PIGEONS TO GET RID OF THEM,

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Prior to the previous weekend 'scary news' on pigeons, I sent the Evening News 'doo' clipping to SHU and advised a public campaign to get across that racing pigeons don't spread bird flu; after my post on the general pigeon board 'will there be racing' last night, I emailed Peter Bryant with the same message .. time for skirmishes and rearguard actions long past, need public campaign of adverts in newpapers, on TV, car and transporter windscreen stickers, and representation at EU level.

 

And while in principle the infected racing pigeon could  infect its owner, absolutely no-one has come up with HOW the pigeon could get infected in the first place. Nor has any perspective been put on it ...

 

millions of wild birds, very susceptible to H5N1 and all other strains (no action) ;

 

trillions of poultry, highly susceptible to H5N1 and all other strains, hundreds of thousands of human contacts (no action other than don't release game poultry into the wild)

 

thousands of racing pigeons, fairly resistant to H5N1, fully resistant to all other strains ... er, can't have that Minister, lets cull them.

 

ABSOLUTE NONSENSE and doesn't need a genious to argue and win our case. What it does need though is people to get up off there collective arses and do something positive to get a campaign started ... NOW.

 

 

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Guest shadow

Dont know why they show cases in england on their map as there have been no confirmed cases on the UK mainland :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Shadowood Lofts" ;)

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Guest shadow

Nine more cases  reported in Denmark, two in Israel and one in Penang. U S studies show there are now two strains of H5N1 as it is spreading it is mutating which will make it harder to produce a vaccine :(

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Guest shadow
Shadow, it's quite possible that there is 3 incidents that they are keeping their eyes on. Not sure, but click on the link at the bottom of the map page and you will find a few items about Defra, a cat, chicken(s) in Scotland etc.

 

Hope this helps.

the poultry in scotland were found not to have the virus thank goodness, thanks for the info. :)

 

 

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Guest shadow
can someone explain to me wat i can do and cant do with my birds cos i am not politicaly minded thnx

 

just carry on as normal at the moment if there was an outbreak in your area you would soon know as Defra will put out notice of an exclusion zone and you would have to keep your birds in :)

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U S studies show there are now two strains of H5N1 as it is spreading it is mutating which will make it harder to produce a vaccine :(

 

 

I'm responding to this bit of your post.

 

Pleased you posted this. Two strains? Would say its many strains. Unlike animals, birds and humans, viruses just can't reproduce a carbon copy of themselves, therefore their 'offspring' are all different. But scientists can trace the many different lineages back to their original sources / outbreaks.  

 

In infection terms, kinda explains how one version of the virus can infect a pigeon in e.g. Thailand, yet another version can't in China. And yet another version in Turkey can, while yet another version in Vietnam can't.

 

The only thing you can definitely say about H5N1 is that it is very unpredictable.

 

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Dare I say it? A bit of encouraging news about pigeons on the DEFRA website?

 

Report fresh today on H5N1 infections in Animals & Birds in the wild. Noted Birds of Prey susceptible and considered a risk. Noted pigeon die-offs but accepted evidence (Swayne & Perkins, and others) that they are fairly resistant AND Dr David Swayne has been contacted by them by email and his unpublished work on Asian strain of H5N1 showing minority of pigeons could become infected BUT majority not, so RESISTANT - has also been accepted.

 

Runs to 15 pages, but well worth 'skimming' through:

 

 

http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/monitoring/pdf/hpai-avianmammal220306.pdf

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exerpt from letter to mr marcos kypriano,   european comission

FURTHER, THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME UNPUBLISHED WORK OF SWAYNE. IN WHICH PIGEONS WERE INFECTED WITH ASIAN H5N1 STRAINS. SOME OF THESE PIGEONS WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN FULLY RESISTANT TO VIRUS. HOWEVER. ,THESE STUDIES WERE PERFORMED UNDER LAB. CONDITIONS IN WHICH THE AMMOUNT OF VIRUS USED FOR INFECTION IS MUCH HIGHER AS PIGEONS MAY EVER COME INTO CONTACT WITH ,UNDER PRACTICAL CONDITIONS.

THE CONCLUSION FROM THIS DATA IS THAT PIGEONS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO BECOME INFECTED WITH AVIAN VIRUSES AND THEREFORE   POSE VERY LITTLE THREAT OF INTRODUCING AVIAN FLU VIRUSES INTO AN AREA.,,,,PIGEONS WILL CERTAINLY NOT ACT AS A RESERVOIR FOR AVIAN FLU VIRUSES.

"AS POMPEY MICK SAID, IT WOULD BE GREAT, IF THE POWERS TO BE , COULD FIND OUT WHY, PIGEONS, DONT ACT AS A RESERVOIR,,AND POSSIBLY HOLD THE ANSWERS TO AVIAN FLU,,,,,THAT WOULD MAKE BETTER NEWS""

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Interesting article in one of our (Canadian) papers from a highley respected doctor and his viewpoint on the AI. Hopefully there will be more like him speaking up on the "HYSTERIA" created by this.

 

Stop chasing a phantom flu

RICHARD SCHABAS

From Monday's Globe and Mail

Ontario hospitals are planning to spend up to $25-million this year -- enough to employ 300 nurses -- to stockpile the antiviral drug Tamiflu to protect their staff against an influenza pandemic. The provincial government is amending its emergency powers so that in the event of a pandemic, physicians will be compelled to provide services or face imprisonment.

Prudent and appropriate preparations for an impending pandemic? On the contrary, I believe they are a manifestation of a mass hysteria that has lost all touch with its tenuous scientific underpinnings.

The crux of the issue is whether the H5N1 avian influenza virus is about to transform itself into a highly infectious human disease. The disaster prophets have been predicting exactly this eventuality since 1997. I believe this scenario has always been speculative and, with each passing day, becomes less and less likely. H5N1 is bad news for birds but, as a human pandemic, it's just another false alarm.

Influenza is an important disease. Unlike most viruses, it has the uncanny ability to stay one step ahead of the human immune system by adopting subtle changes in its external appearance. This so-called antigenic drift produces worldwide influenza epidemics almost every year. In Canada, influenza annually affects up to 10 per cent of the population and causes more deaths than any other infectious disease, primarily among the elderly and the chronically ill. Influenza immunization (Ontario has the best program in the world) can mitigate but not eliminate the problem.

The human influenza virus can also undergo a more major change, a so-called antigenic shift, completely evading our pre-existing immunity and causing a larger epidemic or pandemic. Pandemic influenza can affect up to 35 per cent of the population. The actual illness may not be more virulent than a typical flu but a pandemic causes more deaths and disruption by dint of its higher attack rate. There were three pandemics in the 20th century, in 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-9, and we believe they happen, on average, about once every 30 or 40 years. This much we know, but not a lot more.

We do not have a good understanding of how the virus actually makes the antigenic shift that leads to a pandemic. We've never had the opportunity to observe the process with anything like modern scientific technology. It is believed that the 1957 and 1968 pandemics resulted from a recombination of the pre-existing human virus with elements of an avian influenza virus. How this occurred is a mystery. The most popular theory is that recombination occurs when either a pig or a person is infected with both the avian and human viruses at the same time, but it's only a theory.

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, we must assume that the genetic change that creates a pandemic virus is a random event. Therefore, the fact that we have not had an influenza pandemic for 38 years does not mean that we are overdue for the next one. By analogy, a coin toss will, on average, produce a heads once every two tosses. But if you believe that throwing a tails makes it more likely that the next toss will be heads, you will make a poor gambler.

H5N1 is a disease of birds that was first identified in 1997. It is part of a large family of avian influenza viruses that are spread by migratory birds. H5N1 is unusual, but not unique, in a couple of ways. It causes serious illness in birds and it can infect and cause serious illness in humans.

The first appearance of H5N1, in 1997, caused understandable alarm. Here was a new virus that seemed to be on the cusp of causing a major human problem. However, when it quickly became apparent that H5N1 was not transmitted efficiently from person to person, the initial panic subsided and was replaced by the concern that it would recombine with human influenza or mutate into a true human disease. But H5N1 did none of this and faded into the background of south China.

The resurgence of H5N1, in 2003, triggered renewed concerns. The virus was now more widespread among birds and the number of human cases increased. Speculation about a human pandemic revived. The World Health Organization and others sounded the alarm worldwide.

The alarms are still ringing. What has changed in this time? Well, actually nothing of significance. The virus has spread among birds -- hardly a surprise since we have no effective means of stopping it. There has been a steady but small stream of new human cases among people with close contact with infected birds -- nothing new or surprising there -- and H5N1 still shows no capacity for efficient spread from person to person.

Whatever changes H5N1 was going to undergo with regard to human infection, they most certainly haven't happened quickly. Surely, any open-minded scientist should question whether these changes are going to happen soon, if at all.

Of course, there are vested interests that benefit from pandemic fear. Public-health agencies, such as the WHO, and a ménage of self-proclaimed experts, get personal profile and corporate financing by stirring pandemic fears.

We have emergency planners whose livelihood depends on a steady stream of perceived threats. They want us to be ready. Whether we need to be ready is not their department.

The media loves H5N1 because it provides an inexhaustible source of copy, complete with lurid photographs of dead chickens and people in containment suits. But the talking heads who sounded the alarm about an imminent H5N1 pandemic in 1997 and again in 2003, not to mention the mooted SARS pandemic, Ebola and many other false alarms, are the same voices warning of impending catastrophe today. When is the media going to stop reporting their predictions so uncritically?

The most striking aspect of the medical debate about H5N1 is that there isn't one. Doctors are usually a cantankerous and skeptical bunch. They pride themselves on being evidence-based, requiring experiments or strong and consistent observations to be persuaded. The H5N1 warnings meet neither of these criteria and yet are accepted unquestioningly. H5N1 has been the biggest global health story of the past three years and yet none of the world's great medical journals has shown any appetite for a critical review of its precepts.

What should we do?

A human influenza pandemic is likely to occur some time in the next 40 years. There is no reliable scientific basis for predicting its timing, severity or the precise virus likely to trigger it. We should make prudent but limited preparations for this pandemic by enhancing our capacity to produce influenza vaccine and improving our surveillance for new strains of influenza virus. Ontario hospitals need those 300 nurses more than they need the Tamiflu stockpile.

And we should calm down, stop chasing phantoms and spend our efforts tackling the myriad of real problems that we actually do face.

Richard Schabas, Ontario's chief medical officer of health from 1987 to 1997, is currently chief of staff at York Central Hospital in Richmond Hill, Ont

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